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Prediction for CME (2024-07-17T07:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-17T07:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32027/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Associated with an M5.0 flare seen in SDO AIA 131 from S10W30 (AR 13743) which had a peak time of 2024-07-17T06:39Z. Dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171, and post-eruptive brightening is seen in SDO AIA 131/193/304. Seen in SDO AIA imagery before a shutter maneuver/eclipse lasting from 17/07:07Z to 17/07:48Z. Seen also in GOES SUVI and STEREO A EUV imagery. No clear CME arrival signature in solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-20T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32030/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-17T07:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=27.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=488.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2024-07-17T14:42Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-20T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-18T23:46Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-20T04:23Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-22T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_144200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 68.87 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-07-17T21:08Z

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